CCR Forecasts Colorado Democratic Primary Results Five-Weeks-Out

Colorado Community Research (CCR) identified statistically significant leads in the Governor and U.S. Senate races, and predicted the House District 8 margin a full five weeks before Election Day.

Governor's Race: First to ID Weiser as the Frontrunner

While most of the conversation focused on Michael Bennet’s early advantage, CCR's survey, fielded five weeks ahead of the June 30th primary, established a statistically significant lead for Phil Weiser (54.7 to 45.3, proportionally allocating undecideds). This was the first publicly available poll to position Weiser as the clear frontrunner.

With roughly 85% of returns now in, Weiser is tracking to a double-digit margin, consistent with our projections. The early call on Weiser reflects what disciplined methodology and the right modeling assumptions can surface well ahead of conventional wisdom.

U.S. Senate: First to Show Softer support for Hick, Potential for Gonzales

CCR's poll was the first to establish that Julie Gonzalez represented a serious competitive threat in the U.S. Senate primary, a race that most observers treated as a foregone conclusion at the time. Our result showing Hickenlooper 55, Gonzalez 45 (proportionally allocating undecideds) correctly identified the race as meaningfully contested, and our treatment of undecided voters placed us within a narrow band of the final result.

The Senate race is still developing as ballots continue to be counted. Current returns are tracking closely with our modeled outcome as higher turnout becomes a significant factor. Accurately characterizing a competitive dynamic five weeks out, before campaigns or media had fully engaged with it, is the kind of signal that separates a rigorous poll from a simple snapshot.

Congressional District 8: Margin and Approval Both Right

In Colorado's 8th Congressional District, CCR's poll showed Manny Rutinel at 44 points to Shannon Bird at 24, a roughly 2:1 ratio that maps directly onto the final result. What was noteworthy at the time of fielding was the underlying approval data: Rutinel carried a net approval of +51, while Bird was at +13. Those approval differentials signaled not just a vote-share lead, but a structurally durable gap that wasn’t going to close in the final weeks of the campaign.

On Turnout

CCR modeled Democratic primary turnout scenarios up to a ceiling of approximately 815,000 ballots. With current returns projected above that threshold and final totals likely to exceed 850,000 Democratic ballots cast, this cycle is tracking above even our highest turnout model.  

Work With Us

Colorado Community Research provides public opinion research, data services, messaging strategy, and digital outreach for campaigns and government clients across Colorado. If you're working on a race or project that would benefit from rigorous survey research, whether you need a benchmark poll, a persuasion targeting framework, or a post-primary debrief, we'd love to grab a coffee and talk through what you're building. Reach us at info@coloradocommunityresearch.com or visit us at www.coloradocommunityresearch.com.