Boulder Issue 2E: Poll & Message Testing

Ballot Measure 2E

In the run up to the 2022 election we were curious about what voters in the City of Boulder believed about a particular measure that appeared on that Fall's ballot (2E - Even Year municipal elections). Knowing that traditional polling methods were out of reach due to time and expense, yet still wanting to achieve a statistically significant polling result we pooled our creativity and skill sets, and developed a novel survey and analysis method that delivered results suggesting overwhelming support in the community. 

The results of our poll suggested 62.1% of the community was in support of the measure with a margin of error of +/- 3.9%. We feel validated in our rigorous methods by the end result of the people of Boulder approving the measure with 63.5% voting in favor. 

Top-line Findings

Our initial weighted findings found 55% of voters favored the measure, 15% were against, and 30% were undecided.

We tested a variety of messages both for and against the issue. We tested the strength of these messages on their own and when pitted against one another. We found one statement that performed better than any other in every single demographic group, a rare finding. This enabled our campaign efforts to take a less nuanced play in the marketing materials associated with the campaign.

After being presented messaging from both positions respondents shifted toward a YES vote.

A sign of the positive nature of the ballot measure and our campaign messaging, as people learned more about the issue, they gravitated towards a YES vote. Final election results were only 1.4% off our findings.

We also measured the awareness of and net favorability of a variety of prominent local endorsing groups. “In past elections, how have you seen an endorsement from the following groups?”

We frequently test where folks get their local election news from.